Tomorrow's forecast · PUN and zones€/MWh

Method and publication

Coverage

Hourly forecast of PUN and the seven Italian bidding zones (North, Centre-North, Centre-South, South, Calabria, Sicily, Sardinia) for the next delivery day on the Italian day-ahead market (MGP).

Content

For every hour, the central value (p50) and the p10–p90 range, built to contain the price 80 times out of 100. For every zone, baseload, the average of hours 8–20 and of the remaining hours, the comparison with the current day and the margin of a combined-cycle gas plant.

Publication

The forecast of record is the one available before the MGP closes at 12:00 CET: it is stored as issued and the track record is measured on it. After 12:00 the page shows the updated calculation, labelled as such.

Verification

Average error, percentage error and range coverage are measured over the last 30 days, with no hours excluded. The hour-by-hour record is in the Transparency section and can be downloaded as Excel.